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Old 15th November 2018
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Re: Political: We're doomed, Captain Mannering...

As a fervent remainer, I'm backing TM's deal. Here's why:

- Our negotiating position with the EU was never going to be strong and anyone who thought we could carry on in the single market with all its benefits once we left can only be described as delusional. An exit deal that the EU would accept and that would meet the demands of JRM and his cronies was never a realistic possibility.

- JRM might now say we should leave with no-deal, but anyone who understands the issues knows that leaving with no deal will be very, very hard on us economically in the short to medium term. Unless you're a complete ideologue then no deal is a really, really bad idea.

- The deal on the table may not be perfect, but it's a deal that won't hurt us too badly economically and we can build on it from there. Maybe that will lead to further distancing from the EU in time, or maybe we'll move closer together again. Who knows what the country will think in 5-10 years. I think we need to follow through on the 2016 result so that we can live with our decision and see how it feels.

But as a remainer don't I want another referendum? Well, it's an appealing prospect, but it's very risky:

- It's by no means sure the political situation will allow it to happen. We could end up crashing out with no deal first and that would be a real disaster.

- The result is by no means sure. We're still a divided nation.

- A vote to remain would be very hard to take politically - I can see it causing even more division in our society than there is now.

So, as I said, I'm backing TM's deal. On a personal level I wouldn't wish on anyone the pressure she must have been under. Sure she's made mistakes (2017 election and agreeing to the NI backstop being pretty high on the list), but as others have pointed out, her resilience and dedication has been exemplary. Boris, DD, Raab etc all had the luxury of principled resignation and the platform to then snipe from the sidelines. If she'd done that we'd have been in even more merde than we are now.

If there's one villain of the piece, that I'd gladly punch in the nose, then it would be Cameron.
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