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Old 3rd April 2017
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The Exponential Age?

The Exponential Age?

Just a few things for us all to ponder, especially the younger ones amongst us

Did you think back in 1998 that three years later you would never take pictures on film again?

In 1998 Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85 % photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years their business model disappeared, and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next ten years and, most people won't see it coming.

Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture, and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

The software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, ten years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds. With 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90 % less lawyers in the future. Only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, which is four times more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030 computers will become more intelligent than humans. (NEVER says, Albert)

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020 the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while being driven.

Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles ( 100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies like Tesla, Apple, Google will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real Estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean. Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2k Wh per cubic meter at 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the " Tricorder " from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you simply breath into it.

It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye medical establishments.

3 D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China they have already 3D printed and built a complete 6 storey office building. By 2027 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself, "In the future, do I think we will have that?" If the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80 % of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short time. This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.



Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics: Will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30 % of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.

The Times They Are A Changing!

Ever wonder what happened to Dennis the Menace when he got older?
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Old 3rd April 2017
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Re: The Exponential Age?

More may not be better, a prime example being the proliferation of TV channels.

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Re: The Exponential Age?

Too true. The bad of it is that theres no option to block the intallation of new chanels, invariably "infomercial" stations selling firness machines.
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Totally agree. The future is certainly going to be different.
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Old 4th April 2017
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Re: The Exponential Age?

With Trump and North Korea we may not live to see it though, the extra channels or the future!
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Harold Gough Harold Gough is offline
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Re: The Exponential Age?

It explains my accumulation of lenses.

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Re: The Exponential Age?

To emmulate my artistry and render me redundant as a painter, it would have to clone me and just think, how good that would be!
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Technology would need to be able to clone or 3D print me to replace my artistry - just thousands of little me's running around painting stuff - how GOOD would that be!
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pandora View Post
To emmulate my artistry and render me redundant as a painter, it would have to clone me and just think, how good that would be!
Where is the poll button?

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Re: The Exponential Age?

Well you beat my edit saying much the same thing, Harold!

But to you, touché all the same!
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pandora View Post
Well you beat my edit saying much the same thing, Harold!

But to you, touché all the same!
This cloning idea suggests how I might get to use all my lenses.

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Re: The Exponential Age?

When you absolutely have to get there take an Uber Taxi.

If you really want to see how good Uber Taxis are take a look at this RNLI Video from the Holy Island Causeway (Lindisfarne).
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Old 4th April 2017
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Naughty Nigel View Post
When you absolutely have to get there take an Uber Taxi.

If you really want to see how good Uber Taxis are take a look at this RNLI Video from the Holy Island Causeway (Lindisfarne).
Never trust a "Car Wash" sign on 1st April!

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Re: The Exponential Age?

Mark, seems to me, responses so far to your OP are akin to that famous saying by the Head of International Business Machines (manufacturers of Typewriters), that this new ‘information processor’ may be sold to perhaps three or four large Corporations a year…..(i.e. how off target about technology can you be)!
What you describe as the ‘rush to the new’, was also described in ‘Future Shock’ written by Alvin Toffler in, would you believe, 1970.
It took nearly 100 years for the typewriter to be accepted into general office use. It took about six years for the Fax machine to achieve the same status.
The predictions you list are already upon us.
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Old 4th April 2017
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Re: The Exponential Age?

Hi iso - I am not the author of the article, simply passing on what has been going around.
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