Political: We're doomed, Captain Mannering...

[MJ224]

Vote with your feet..............

Remainers walk up to Scotland, leavers go to the smoke.........

But I'm staying in Wales......

[wornish]

Originally Posted by Ricoh

There's mention of a 2nd referendum. I'm ok with that, but are two referenda sufficient? If the outcome is reversed it becomes a draw. Do we have a penalty shoot out, toss a coin or hold a third referendum?

The EU would love us to have never ending referendums as long as we keep paying them lots of money. Why not make the transition period 50 years so everyone can plan for the change seems like a good idea. Not

[Ricoh]

Ah, a question of referenda or referendums. Origins in Latin so possibly referenda.

Let's hold a rererendum on it.

[Ricoh]

The elephant in the room is the Scotland and Nothern Ireland issue, so two elephants actually.

[Graham_of_Rainham]

Leave or Remain; is there anyone who believes this "government" is capable of delivering a successful outcome.

[Ricoh]

David Cameron should shoulder the blame for offering a referendum (just the one). It's far too complex a problem for Joe Public. Did any of the polititions mention Scotland, or Ireland and the Good Friday agreement?

[KeithL]

Originally Posted by Ricoh

There's mention of a 2nd referendum. I'm ok with that, but are two referenda sufficient? If the outcome is reversed it becomes a draw. Do we have a penalty shoot out, toss a coin or hold a third referendum?

Not if it's done properly, not the bad joke that was done in June 2016. It was effectively a constitutional change; no other country voting on a constitutional change does it on a straight FPTP vote, nor do they allow voters not to bother to vote. Only some 70% of the country voted- high for us in recent years - and that means that 36% voted leave. If everyone had been required to vote, we would know what the remaining nearly 30% wanted; as it is we have no idea. So, 36% will take us out? That's not democracy.

Compounding the felony was that both sides resorted to propaganda, not facts. We know people who wouldn't vote, because they said they had no idea what they were actually voting for, either way.

Let me put this to you: if we crash out of the EU or leave without a deal, we will lose most of what remains of the motor industry - they didn't come here to be on the outside again! - probably Airbus will pull out of N Wales (they have been talking about that for a while now). Is that what you want, or would be happy with? The motor industry employs around 700,000 people in the UK, most in suppliers. Is that a 'price worth paying'? (And, incidentally, don't tell me it won't happen; I worked in the industry for 37 years, and in high enough positions to know what I am talking about.)

[Ricoh]

If you're asking me, I would definitely vote to remain, as is, with the concessions previously negotiated. If we leave and later rejoin the membership conditions will be not so good, mandatory single currency for example.

Unfortunately I think we're walking towards a financial disaster with the potential loss of industry as you say, and the valued financial aspects of our economy.

[wornish]

Originally Posted by KeithL

............................

Let me put this to you: if we crash out of the EU or leave without a deal, we will lose most of what remains of the motor industry - they didn't come here to be on the outside again! - probably Airbus will pull out of N Wales (they have been talking about that for a while now). Is that what you want, or would be happy with? The motor industry employs around 700,000 people in the UK, most in suppliers. Is that a 'price worth paying'? (And, incidentally, don't tell me it won't happen; I worked in the industry for 37 years, and in high enough positions to know what I am talking about.)

Robots are coming and a lot of the jobs in the motor industry will be replaced, leave or stay. Companies will invest where the workforce are prepared to change and learn new skills. Quite a lot of the car factories in the UK are world leaders in output efficiency are you saying companies will not want the benefit of our skilled workforce and management ?

Will the EU just stop buying cars next year because they are made in the UK ? The remain politicians seem to think so but business people are more pragmatic. I suppose BMW and Mercedes won't want to sell to us either.

Project Fear continues we cant possibly survive in the big bad world.
Lets all be good little EU poodles and do as we are told, keep paying them lots of £'s and let them make all our laws.

[pdk42]

Originally Posted by wornish

Robots are coming and a lot of the jobs in the motor industry will be replaced, leave or stay. Companies will invest where the workforce are prepared to change and learn new skills. Quite a lot of the car factories in the UK are world leaders in output efficiency are you saying companies will not want the benefit of our skilled workforce and management ?

Will the EU just stop buying cars next year because they are made in the UK ? The remain politicians seem to think so but business people are more pragmatic. I suppose BMW and Mercedes won't want to sell to us either.

Project Fear continues we cant possibly survive in the big bad world.
Lets all be good little EU poodles and do as we are told, keep paying them lots of £'s and let them make all our laws.

Have you been reading The Daily Mail? Look at the facts not the rhetoric.

This country is already suffering an investment crash due to Brexit. Companies are already leaving. The impact on financial services will be huge. The impact on manufacturing will be huge. The impact of agriculture will be huge. There's hardly an industry that will benefit and most will suffer. Our growth is heading south compared to nearly all other major economies. The writing is writ large on very big walls.

It's only the rabid right wing press and the Boris/Gove/Rees-Mogg cabal that keeps spouting the referendum aphorisms about the EU - and they are demonstrably lies (£350m/wk for the NHS??!!).

All these arguments about the EU taking our money are complete BS. We agreed to those budgets and we are the recipients of many of the benefits from them.

As to making our laws - they're mostly about regulatory alignment and in truth are nearly always to our benefit. Having common ways of doing things leads to frictionless trade which aids commerce. In any case, if we want to deal with the EU after Brexit then we'll need to meet these regulations anyhow - the difference is that we'll no longer haves any say in their construction.

[wornish]

Originally Posted by pdk42

Have you been reading The Daily Mail? Look at the facts not the rhetoric.

This country is already suffering an investment crash due to Brexit. Companies are already leaving. The impact on financial services will be huge. The impact on manufacturing will be huge. The impact of agriculture will be huge. There's hardly an industry that will benefit and most will suffer. Our growth is heading south compared to nearly all other major economies. The writing is writ large on very big walls.

It's only the rabid right wing press and the Boris/Gove/Rees-Mogg cabal that keeps spouting the referendum aphorisms about the EU - and they are demonstrably lies (£350m/wk for the NHS??!!).

All these arguments about the EU taking our money are complete BS. We agreed to those budgets and we are the recipients of many of the benefits from them.

As to making our laws - they're mostly about regulatory alignment and in truth are nearly always to our benefit. Having common ways of doing things leads to frictionless trade which aids commerce. In any case, if we want to deal with the EU after Brexit then we'll need to meet these regulations anyhow - the difference is that we'll no longer haves any say in their construction.

I notice you avoiding answering my questions.

Which companies are leaving name some please.

Laws for our benefit ? Like reducing the power of vacuum cleaners to 900 watts to save energy. People will have to hoover twice as long to get their carpets as clean, so end up using the same/more energy and more time. It was simply a response to lobbying by German manufacturers who cant compete with Dyson.

We are a net contributor to the EU by a large amount. They give back some of our contribution to be used where they specify on what they decide.
So effectively we have only one vote in 28 on where to spend our money. I would rather we decide for ourselves and have some electoral control over the people making the decisions. Then if we dont like the decisions we can change the people.


Farming - so the efficient French farming system is what our farmers should aspire to ? They get around 40% of the total EU budget

We manage to trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms. The custom union actually inhibits us. As I said before its a protection racket for inefficient industries in the EU. It actually prevents innovation and hurts developing countries. Great system.

[Jim Ford]

Originally Posted by wornish

Project Fear continues we cant possibly survive in the big bad world.

Project Reality is going to prove to be a very thin gruel indeed!

Jim

[snaarman]

I had a moment of clarity before all this happened.

What if we actually vote to leave? I mean, like would we really do that ... but anyway, Cameron will have to step down and there will have to be another election.

Who will win, who will be the PM. Could it possibly be Boris? Please, no. No country could be that stupid. And when we have left who will be our friend? America? Pah! They are not and never have been our friend. And what if (now I am hallucinating) Trump wins. No, that would never happen, no country would be that stupid either. But if all of this madness happened, that would be us - out of Europe, with Boris as PM and Trump as president.

At this point I woke up in a cold sweat and had to make my self a nice cup of tea and a slice of toast. I remember discussing this unlikely sequence of events with friends at the time.

What frightens me is that almost all of that has come true. Grrr.

PS, I voted remain - however you are right, why is it always our round?

[Naughty Nigel]

Originally Posted by Graham_of_Rainham

Leave or Remain; is there anyone who believes this "government" is capable of delivering a successful outcome.

No I don't. But what is more worrying is that HM Opposition is equally divided, incompetent and incapable of negotiating their way out of a paper bag.

And that is the crux of the problem.

Originally Posted by Ricoh

David Cameron should shoulder the blame for offering a referendum (just the one). It's far too complex a problem for Joe Public.

Cameron was partly to blame, but the BREXIT question wasn't going to go away until a referendum was held. Tony Blair was also to blame for taking us far deeper into Europe than was good for us in my view.

Had Corbyn and the Opposition backed Cameron during the referendum, instead of sitting on the fence and trying to undermine the elected government we probably wouldn't be where we are now.

[pdk42]

Originally Posted by wornish

I notice you avoiding answering my questions.

Which companies are leaving name some please.

HSBC, UBS, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, Diageo and many more are are moving staff and downsizing in the UK. Just go Googling - there are lots of examples.
Vodafone, EasyJet, and many Japanese car companies are threatening to move. I think these threats are real since the implications to these sort of businesses post Brexit are severe.

Really - the evidence is there. You just need to go looking.

Originally Posted by wornish

Laws for our benefit ? Like reducing the power of vacuum cleaners to 900 watts to save energy. People will have to hoover twice as long to get their carpets as clean, so end up using the same/more energy and more time. It was simply a response to lobbying by German manufacturers who cant compete with Dyson.

Have you read those regulations? I have - it was quoted by the junk UK tabloid press so many times as an example of stupid EU laws that I thought I'd better check it out.

What I found was surprisingly readable stuff trying to provide objective ways of measuring vacuum cleaner efficiency. If I buy a 1000W cleaner it only tells me how many Watts it consumes, not how well it sucks! The regulations introduce objective ways to measure cleaning efficiency.

Moreover, the regulations are putting pressure on manufacturers to improve efficiency by consuming less power so we fry our planet less. What's wrong with that?

In truth the vacuum cleaner regulations are good regulations that if presented as a BSI would be hailed by the same junk press as "Great British regulations". As to Dyson - well, like any company they can access them freely and easily on the EU website and even choose from 28 languages (which btw is a great way to ensure level playing field access to the common market).

Speaking of Dyson, I've just been looking at their hairdryer in a store in the US. $400 - for a hairdryer! Strikes me that competing against a $99 Braun one next to it has little to do with being stitched up by EU regs.

Sorry - but actually the vacuum cleaner regulations stuff is just another example of the dumb and uninformed UK press spreading lies in a clear attempt to position the EU negatively in the minds of the UK public. It stinks!

Originally Posted by wornish

We are a net contributor to the EU by a large amount. They give back some of our contribution to be used where they specify on what they decide.
So effectively we have only one vote in 28 on where to spend our money. I would rather we decide for ourselves and have some electoral control over the people making the decisions. Then if we dont like the decisions we can change the people.

As a member we get to debate and agree on the budget - both inbound and outbound funds. It's not "them", it's the wider" us". That we are a net contributor may be true, but we need to look at the wider and longer term picture. Helping build a broad and prosperous EU is heavily in our interests.

Is the EU budget always wisely spent? - probably not, but is the bigger picture of a stable and peaceful Europe, where we can trade, travel and live at will and in peace, not something worth spending a little on? Isolationism and trade barriers have too often been the prelude to war so many times in history.

Originally Posted by wornish

Farming - so the efficient French farming system is what our farmers should aspire to ? They get around 40% of the total EU budget

The CAP is not a great policy and it doesn't play to our benefit. I agree with that. But it's a policy that is reaching its sell-by date anyhow.

The 40% figure you quote is I think the total CAP share of the EU budget (and in fact is less than this now). France does not receive anything like 100% of the CAP budget. Ask yourself why one of the many legislative things on this government's list to sort out in the wake of Brexit is to introduce farm subsidies. Many UK farmers receive payments from the CAP which we'll need to continue to fund.

Originally Posted by wornish

We manage to trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms. The custom union actually inhibits us. As I said before its a protection racket for inefficient industries in the EU. It actually prevents innovation and hurts developing countries. Great system.

That makes no sense at all. Governments introduce trade barriers to protect their own industries. Getting a deal on trade tariffs is about opening up export opportunities balanced against import barriers. We're much more likely to get a deal if we negotiate as part of the EU than on our own.

Look to what Trump did with Bombardier in NI. As a member of the EU we could put pressure on him much better than if we were alone.

Sorry, but being part of the EU gives us a strong negotiating position, not the opposite. WTO is the lowest common denominator - not a position to aspire to.

All this customs union stuff is just another example of right wing press delusion.

The objective case for leaving the EU is just not there. That's why anyone who has any clue about how our economy works has been saying for a long time that Brexit is a disaster. You can't count fools like Boris or Gove - they are basically journalists made good.