Political: We're doomed, Captain Mannering...

[wornish]

Originally Posted by pdk42

Look at the big picture...

- UK is a small, post industrial nation with severe productivity challenges (skills, infrastructure, capital investment, regional imbalances, ...)

- Europe is one of the world's biggest and richest markets and makes up 50% of our trade.

- Euro currency union probably a mistake

What we want is to be part of the EU and its internal market but not the Euro. Oh, hang on - isn't that what we have now?

To take your points in turn

The UK is the 5th or 6th largest market in the world how is that small?

EU actually makes up 43% of our trade and falling. Also, trade won't stop when we leave, the EU does trade with China, US, and many other non members why would they stop trading with us?

I agree with your last point if you remove the word probably.

[wornish]

Originally Posted by Jim Ford

Money that we had committed to! It's been stated that it's like a large group of people going to a pub to drink, and one of them wanting to leave when it's their turn to buy a round.

Jim

Think since we joined we have bought more rounds than most of the other members.

How is it our turn?

[jdal]

Originally Posted by Jim Ford

Isn't the problem with Greece is that they borrowed a lot of money for profligate spending and they don't want to pay it back?

I read some time ago that they have more tanks than either the U.K. or France - and they're 'top of the range' German Leopards. I don't know what they're going to do with them - isn't Greece mountainous and not really tank country?

Jim

Nope, they were loaned money by Euro banks, largely German. These loans were as bad as the US Subprime Mortgages. When the crash came, the German banks needed bailing out, but ECB/Euro rules don't allow that. So they loaned the Greeks money which they then had to hand back to the banks. There were large repayments (3.5% of GDP) plus cripping austerity foisted on them. These conditions were enforced by threats to shut down their banks. The solutions the Socialists offered via Varoufakis (supported by Norman Lamont and others) were the only chance the creditors would ever have to get their money back, but for political reasons Merkel's side won and the Socialist government caved in and now Greece are on a permanent debt repayment regime, which can never pay back the debts because the economy can't grow because of austerity.

Also, they should never have been in the Euro. It's a complex story - have a read of Adults In The Room by the Greek ex-finance minister at the heart of the discussions, Yanis Varoufakis, a fantastic real tale of how these things operate. It made me realise just how f*cked we are dealing with IMF, China, EU, USA.

[MJ224]

Originally Posted by Jim Ford

Isn't the problem with Greece is that they borrowed a lot of money for profligate spending and they don't want to pay it back?

I read some time ago that they have more tanks than either the U.K. or France - and they're 'top of the range' German Leopards. I don't know what they're going to do with them - isn't Greece mountainous and not really tank country?

Jim

I am no expert, but I thought the Greek situation was brought on by the Euro being their currency. If they still had their own currency, they could devalue it. Still does not sort their bad economy I know, but does give them a solution of sorts...........

[Wally]

I opened this thread, as reading the two provided links plus the others contained within, had left me none the wiser. I am just as much in the dark, or confused as I was in the run up to the referendum vote. Yes, I am a wrinkly, and again, yes I didn’t vote. I had had enough of the military style of cooking. When it's burnt it's cooked. I left my comfort blanket behind when I found there was a superior cuisine alsewhere. After all this time, and with the ongoing shenanigans I am still none the wiser but have now had enough of this enforced FOSKID diet... the prime reason I never voted. Read into that what you will.

I liked Jim’s analogy of ducking out of buying the round of drinks in the pub. In many ways, it hits the spot. However, during the pub crawl, what if your round was where most, if not all of the others decided to go for a more expensive bevy? Here is another take: Two countries are in the final for the World Cup. Wales and Ireland, after extra time and two sets of penalties were knocked out in the semi’s. The remaining two UK teams go through the same scenario. Bottom line is that one team lost and one team won.

Take on board Jim’s scenario and add it to the above and it all seems to sound very similar to our current situation. The ordinary man /woman / supporter in the street may be well and truly pssst off with the result. In this case, one way or another we all lost. However It doesn’t help or change the result just because the big punters argue over the final result because their favourite team didn’t get the result they put their money on to win.

I’ve often thought that when it comes to international football, having four teams competing against each other, considerably lessened our chance of taking home the big prize which is exactly where we stand today. Given what we have and where we stand in the current situation, three things come to mind. United, we stand… divided we fall; It’s easier to jump ship rather than stay and bail out the water to stay afloat. The other is from a song, ‘Bring on the clowns’. Seems to me we are doing all three in grand style. Finally, irrespective of the politics… it is all about money.
And now for something completely different...

A bunch of politicians walk into a bar.

As one voice, they all shout OUCH!

Serves the tossers right as they should have watched where they were going.

[Harold Gough]

Originally Posted by pdk42

- Europe is one of the world's biggest and richest markets and makes up 50% of our trade.

The truth about the European riches is that many member countries have huge debts, not just the P.I.G.S. but also (tête dans le sable) France. Their spending, funded by borrowing, cannot go on forever. When it all collapses, we want to be well clear of it.

Harold

[Naughty Nigel]

Originally Posted by Jim Ford

It's been stated that it's like a large group of people going to a pub to drink, and one of them wanting to leave when it's their turn to buy a round.

Jim

We are still waiting from France (amongst others) to buy a round.

I cannot help but feel that if Greece, Spain, Italy or any other economic basket case country had wanted to leave the EU their path would have been made very much smoother; and they would probably have received a large golden handshake too.

[Naughty Nigel]

As much as I would like us to remain within the EU Customs Union, if our government (of either party) were to do a U-Turn now, or call another referendum, politics in the UK would be dead in the water, and it would take many years for the electorate to have any faith in the democratic process; if ever.

I also believe there would also be a very real risk of civil unrest and mob rule whichever way the new referendum went; and far too few police to deal with it.

[drmarkf]

Originally Posted by wornish

EU actually makes up 43% of our trade and falling. Also, trade won't stop when we leave, the EU does trade with China, US, and many other non members why would they stop trading with us?

Indeed.

The reason that it is falling as a proportion of the whole is that the U.K. is successfully and significantly increasing its international trade with countries such as China, the US and South Korea.

So, it is doing this while ‘shackled by the constraints of EU membership’ as Brexit supporters love to claim. So this claim is demonstrably rubbish.

[jdal]

Originally Posted by drmarkf

Indeed.

The reason that it is falling as a proportion of the whole is that the U.K. is successfully and significantly increasing its international trade with countries such as China, the US and South Korea.
.

Successful? Really? Why then do we have such a large trade deficit? I think this explains why, were I to understand the spreadsheets fully.

I'm obviously missing something here, if you have a trade deficit then surely less trade is better This stuff is way more complex than can ever be explained in soundbites.

[Wally]

I seem to have heard this somewhere before... https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...ons/vi-BBGfAWG

@ Jim F... has he plagiarised your comment or is the cheque still in the post?

[KeithL]

Originally Posted by Jim Ford

Isn't the problem with Greece is that they borrowed a lot of money for profligate spending and they don't want to pay it back?

I read some time ago that they have more tanks than either the U.K. or France - and they're 'top of the range' German Leopards. I don't know what they're going to do with them - isn't Greece mountainous and not really tank country?

Jim

I was involved with a Greek company during the 90s (during the drachma)and early 2000s |(in the Euro). our Greek partners were almost salivating over the Euro, they thought that by overvaluing the drachma, they would make a profit without any effort. The actual result was that they priced Greece out of various things, and a good example is the software business. There were quite a few American software companies in Athens, and they were there because the pay was low (due to the low drachma) and other costs too were low (likewise). After the Euro, costs rocketed, so what happened? The US companies upped sticks and moved to India and Pakistan, where, guess what, costs again were low.

The Spanish did the same, to a lesser extent; and, as with Greece, it's come back to bite them.

John D mentioned Varoufakis; in his book "The Global Minotaur", he said that big US corporations offered the Greeks banking mechanisms - he called them 'tools', IIRC - that allowed them to hide their debt from EU institutions like the ECB. Effectively they were given big loans from these American outfits, which of course needed paying back later. On top of those, they needed ECB loans when it all went wrong; and it went wrong when the US corporations wanted repaying. As they were bound to.

The EU and EC are too trusting; they expect member states to be honest with them, and don't appear to have a way of handling dishonesty.

The Greeks created an illusion to fool the EU; Leavers are also creating an illusion. The only way that illusion can be dispelled is to properly evaluate ALL the issues, and present them honestly to the electorate, and then have a second referendum where ALL the electorate is required to vote. Then we might - MIGHT - reduce the profound division that it has opened up in the country. But I think the likelihood of crashing out is rather greater!

[KeithL]

Originally Posted by Naughty Nigel

As much as I would like us to remain within the EU Customs Union, if our government (of either party) were to do a U-Turn now, or call another referendum, politics in the UK would be dead in the water, and it would take many years for the electorate to have any faith in the democratic process; if ever.

I also believe there would also be a very real risk of civil unrest and mob rule whichever way the new referendum went; and far too few police to deal with it.

If the referendum as it was run was an example of British democracy, God help us! When reality dawns and people start paying with their jobs, as I'm sure they will, particularly if we crash out, that's when the real risk of violence will happen. Especially if the troubles start up again in Northern Ireland.

[wornish]

Originally Posted by KeithL

...............


The Greeks created an illusion to fool the EU; Leavers are also creating an illusion. The only way that illusion can be dispelled is to properly evaluate ALL the issues, and present them honestly to the electorate, and then have a second referendum where ALL the electorate is required to vote. Then we might - MIGHT - reduce the profound division that it has opened up in the country. But I think the likelihood of crashing out is rather greater!

If in a second election the majority also vote to leave do we then have a third. Best out of five. That seems to be the norm for the EU, (Ireland for a recent example)

We had a democratic vote and almost two years later the government still haven't really started taking the steps necessary to leave. Any attempt to ignore this vote will destroy the electorates faith in democracy and who knows what would happen. I am certain it would not be pretty.

Soros and his minions are throwing everything they can to delay and even stop Brexit. Think we should just walk away and see what the EU then does.
We need someone with some backbone to take us forward. Not sure May is up to it she just seeks compromise after compromise.

[Ricoh]

There's mention of a 2nd referendum. I'm ok with that, but are two referenda sufficient? If the outcome is reversed it becomes a draw. Do we have a penalty shoot out, toss a coin or hold a third referendum?